Below, Kenneth Rosen shares five key insights from his new book, Polar War: Submarines, Spies, and the Struggle for Power in a Melting Arctic.
Kenneth is the recipient of a Kurt Schork Award, a Bayeux-Calvados Award for War Correspondents, and was a two-time finalist for the Livingston Award for his work in Syria and Iraq. His writing has appeared in The New Yorker, The New York Times, The Atlantic, and WIRED.
What’s the big idea?
The Arctic isn’t just ice and polar bears; it’s a fast-changing region where climate change, geopolitics, and resource competition are reshaping the world.
1. Defying definition.
The Arctic region is loosely defined. It can refer to the region above the Arctic Circle, at roughly 66 degrees north, or the sub-arctic region that lies just south of that latitude. Some choose to define the Arctic as the area where permafrost begins, or where trees farther north can be found, and where tundra begins. Others define the region by mean annual temperatures. All of these methods are valid, if imprecise. It is a fittingly caustic and jumbled mess for a region rarely visited by most people, yet one whose health impacts us all.
2. A warming planet lifts all boats.
The Arctic is the fastest-warming place on Earth. With that rising heat comes melting ice sheets and withering glaciers, the loss of many ecosystems, native animals, and Indigenous peoples. But governments the world over, from the United States to China and Russia, see this as an opportunity: less ice means more navigable waters year-round, equaling shorter trade routes. Less time at sea for ships transporting consumer goods and gas or oil means more money saved, though it comes at the expense of those who once found the region quiet and austere.
3. Cold feet for a Cold War.
Fighting over the resources and waterways in the Arctic has led to something of a revived Cold War, with geopolitics and disagreements over international treaties replacing the once-cooperative and friendly Arctic region, home to what former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev called “a zone of peace.” The U.S. and NATO, in particular, have fallen behind as Russia has modernized many of its Cold War-era military bases. The U.S. has been rushing to get back its Arctic capabilities and proficiency as other nations, like China and India, find their way into a region once reserved for those who shared the Arctic Ocean coastline.
4. A new Gold Rush.
There was once a major Gold Rush in Alaska, which led to the discovery of riches for many who dared to brave the harsh, cold days and nights of Arctic winters. Jack London wrote about them, as did many others. Today, there is a new rush for rare earth miners, oil and natural gas, a speculative search that is prefaced on imagination. While the region does contain plentiful resources, getting to them is extraordinarily costly and difficult. Working seasons are short. Skilled labor is hard to find. But this hasn’t stopped some from trying.
5. More polar bears than people.
Perhaps the most illustrative insight I can share is that many regions in the north are populated more by wildlife, specifically polar bears, than by people. The Indigenous groups who call these remote places home have an appreciation for the animals they’ve come to rely on for sustenance, evermore so as they begin to disappear as the climate changes.
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